2009-08-15_Gold Monthly

Gold as money moves relative to supply and demand  as well as relative to other monies, specifically US dollar. Gold Priced in dollars (as shown in this chart above) have moved generally higher since the dollar highs and gold lows at the beginning of the 2000 decade, marking the beginning of the Secular Bear market in stock prices and US Dollar and the Beginning of the Bull market for GOLD.

The chart here is a reminder that the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END. As so, Gold remains in a bull market and is waiting unter the 1000 price level. Breaking resisistance might lead to new highs with the first target of 1300.  Failure to breach 1000 and the next level of support is back to 700, followed by the deep Monthly Support in the 500 level.

2009 08 15 usdcad 2year

USD/CAD chart above shows the the stock market rally has partially been coincident with a fall in US Dollar. The Dollar top near March 9 also happens to be the Stock Market Bottom.

Below are the targets. $es_f emini futures on the SPX show the 800 are to be the forecast for the following weeks IF we break and hold below the neckline of 880-870. There is still risk of a fake out as we break throught he neckline, only to find buyers willing to trap bears. In the Fake our scenario, the Nasdaq would be the leader higher since it does not have the Head and Shoulders and still is in a higher range. Stay tuned to the futures as they may be the early warning signal in overnight trading.

2009-07-09_spx

Aaple is heavy holding for retail investors and highly correlated to Nasdaq movement. In the 130s range, the options have a large reward for $1 move in aapl. I own the 140 puts to limit my Primium risk so close to options expiration next week.

Chart below shows that we are consolidating for a possible move lower. Next level of support is the lower box below 130. first target is 132 which is the nearest level of support, then 130.

2009-07-09_aapl

92

This GLD 91/92 credit spread was bidding at .45 on monday. Monday thrugh 7-17 options ex makes for about 10 days and .45/.55 is a 81% return if held through options ex.

I have been bearish on gold but decided to collect premium on this trade to counter other theta risk in my portfolio, in case the market was choppy or sideways.

2009-06-24_esu9 15 min

Bought long yesterday and sold into this mornings strength. Good traders take profits often.

This was a great example of the typical response to a large sell of as we had monday and doji day tuesday.  SPX chart 200 ma on the 15 min is a good first target. wait and see mode now.

2009-06-24_BGU 15m

2009-06-22_Currencies and Treasuries

As Risk is sold off, Dollar and Tresuries Benefit.  More to come, charts hint yes.

2009-06-22_E-mini

A trend is a trend until its not a trend. The “not a trend” part started with a flattening MACD signaling willing accumulators and short covering. market can rise to Moving averages and then rollover for a coninuation of the trend, but we won’t know until later.

2009-06-20_ES MINI 5 min

 

Fridays options expiration was an excellent lesson in using trading signals using MACD. 

Early morning Break out of from base lead to  highs while MACD diverged lower. Resistence at 923-922 lead to a break of 918 neckline. 918 break lead to a target measured move from the peak to 913. MACD based toward afternoon and short covering bounce ended the day with some final volatility. Excellent movement for futures traders.

2009-06-20_SPX review 60 minute

This a view of the market through the Hourly perspective.

Big picture, breaking the 880-875 level changes the trend from a UPTREND to sideways or downtrend by taking out the latest low and level of support. Alternatively, we have prices pushing on the 200 hour EMA, which also signal selling pressure. MACD also is below 0, but threatening to test the 0 level. 

In my opinion, I believe the risk is to the downside and would prefer to buy at lower prices.  If market goes sideways, the only winners would be spread traders and Nimble traders taking advantage of the intraday price action.