mac heads shot

2009-10-31_testin ma

UMM, the new Real Estate ETF, is now in fork in the road moment. Failure to break out would create a possible test of the lower suppoert levels. But it might also have bigger implications for the rest of the economy as so much depends on real estate today.



As seen above, rarely is deflation a one month spike, but is more likely part of a multi month trend.

Below, chart shows prices of all commodities. Notice 1920s drop leading to the great buying power of the Roaring 20’s, followed by the Deflation Drop of the Depression.

Below, chart shows dollar confirmation of the move. Commodities priced in dollars will fall if dollar rises and/or if demand changes.

There are more stocks today above their 200 Day Moving Average than at the top of the market in 2007.

2009 08 21 spxa200r

2009-08-18_es 2hour

SPX futures (es) sold hard in over night and is currently testing the 980 level. China to blame in overnight trading. Breaking of the 980 is very bearish and would lead later testing lower to the 944 level over time, unless change happens.

A picture is usually the quickest way to communicate. Here are the revised SPX levels.
As you can see from the Daily chart below, we still have a bull trend (within the overall bear market) until we take out the previous lows, which makes for a large range of trading risk between the 1020 down to 880 for 140 point of range risk.
The price levels as marked by the red lines will serve as boarders for different price range as we either trade lower or make for a test higher.
I have market the MAJOR STOP IN for bulls and bears where bull regain the bull trend above 1020 or begin the new bear trend below 880.
A wise trader might already be out of his longs and be using sell stops and buy stops to let the market pull him or her in to trades. Because of the range, one must use caution and trade less size within consolidation days, and may choose to use more on daily bar break outs, and should consider all trading risky until a break out of the range is establishes to onside or another.

MACD is NEGATIVE sloping but still in POSITIVE value above zero.
Stochastics are OVERBOUGHT and signaling to fall back.
Bollinger Bands suggest that if hold this level, downside targets are more probable.
We are still above the 50 Daily MA with a current value of 954, but below the 20 and 18 MA’s.

2009 08 18 spx daily

Gold Prices on this 4 hour chart are selling of and looking to test support at 940s and possible later 930s.
MACD is in negative territory supporting the downtrend unless change happens.

2009 08 16 gold 4hr chart