SL&Co. Research & Strategy

UMM still stinking, RE ETF

observer — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:58:40 +0000

MAC HEADS video, just found

observer — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:31:09 +0000

Market Testing 50 Day MA

observer — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 04:04:59 +0000

Real Estate ETF stalling, Topping Formation short term?

observer — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 05:04:38 +0000

UMM, the new Real Estate ETF, is now in fork in the road moment. Failure to break out would create a possible test of the lower suppoert levels. But it might also have bigger implications for the rest of the economy as so much depends on real estate today.

Monthly Inflation 1872 to present

observer — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 22:05:32 +0000

As seen above, rarely is deflation a one month spike, but is more likely part of a multi month trend.

Below, chart shows prices of all commodities. Notice 1920s drop leading to the great buying power of the Roaring 20′s, followed by the Deflation Drop of the Depression.

Below, chart shows dollar confirmation of the move. Commodities priced in dollars will fall if dollar rises and/or if demand changes.

93.8% of stocks in SPX are above 200 MA

observer — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 05:22:56 +0000

There are more stocks today above their 200 Day Moving Average than at the top of the market in 2007.

SPX highs, yet VIX calls in high demand

observer — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:32:34 +0000

SPX futures went to selling quickly due to CHINA selling

observer — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 06:59:20 +0000

SPX futures (es) sold hard in over night and is currently testing the 980 level. China to blame in overnight trading. Breaking of the 980 is very bearish and would lead later testing lower to the 944 level over time, unless change happens.

SPX levels update

observer — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 22:24:05 +0000

A picture is usually the quickest way to communicate. Here are the revised SPX levels.
As you can see from the Daily chart below, we still have a bull trend (within the overall bear market) until we take out the previous lows, which makes for a large range of trading risk between the 1020 down to 880 for 140 point of range risk.
The price levels as marked by the red lines will serve as boarders for different price range as we either trade lower or make for a test higher.
I have market the MAJOR STOP IN for bulls and bears where bull regain the bull trend above 1020 or begin the new bear trend below 880.
A wise trader might already be out of his longs and be using sell stops and buy stops to let the market pull him or her in to trades. Because of the range, one must use caution and trade less size within consolidation days, and may choose to use more on daily bar break outs, and should consider all trading risky until a break out of the range is establishes to onside or another.

MACD is NEGATIVE sloping but still in POSITIVE value above zero.
Stochastics are OVERBOUGHT and signaling to fall back.
Bollinger Bands suggest that if hold this level, downside targets are more probable.
We are still above the 50 Daily MA with a current value of 954, but below the 20 and 18 MA’s.

Gold 4 hour Chart Shows selling to support at 944 and maybe 930

observer — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 02:11:56 +0000

Gold Prices on this 4 hour chart are selling of and looking to test support at 940s and possible later 930s.
MACD is in negative territory supporting the downtrend unless change happens.

Gold Prices Monthly Chart 1974-2009

observer — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 04:15:51 +0000

Gold as money moves relative to supply and demand as well as relative to other monies, specifically US dollar. Gold Priced in dollars (as shown in this chart above) have moved generally higher since the dollar highs and gold lows at the beginning of the 2000 decade, marking the beginning of the Secular Bear market in stock prices and US Dollar and the Beginning of the Bull market for GOLD.

The chart here is a reminder that the TREND IS YOUR FRIEND UNTIL THE END. As so, Gold remains in a bull market and is waiting unter the 1000 price level. Breaking resisistance might lead to new highs with the first target of 1300. Failure to breach 1000 and the next level of support is back to 700, followed by the deep Monthly Support in the 500 level.

Dollar Top was Stock Market Bottom, Dollar Strength might indicate weakness in stocks.

observer — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 03:55:29 +0000

USD/CAD chart above shows the the stock market rally has partially been coincident with a fall in US Dollar. The Dollar top near March 9 also happens to be the Stock Market Bottom.

Will the Head & Shoulders confirm or fake out?

observer — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:51:35 +0000

Below are the targets. $es_f emini futures on the SPX show the 800 are to be the forecast for the following weeks IF we break and hold below the neckline of 880-870. There is still risk of a fake out as we break throught he neckline, only to find buyers willing to trap bears. In the Fake our scenario, the Nasdaq would be the leader higher since it does not have the Head and Shoulders and still is in a higher range. Stay tuned to the futures as they may be the early warning signal in overnight trading.

Holding AAPL puts into next week, target 130 or better

observer — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:27:10 +0000

Aaple is heavy holding for retail investors and highly correlated to Nasdaq movement. In the 130s range, the options have a large reward for $1 move in aapl. I own the 140 puts to limit my Primium risk so close to options expiration next week.

Chart below shows that we are consolidating for a possible move lower. Next level of support is the lower box below 130. first target is 132 which is the nearest level of support, then 130.

GLD 91/92 Credit Vertical Spread working

observer — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:18:36 +0000

This GLD 91/92 credit spread was bidding at .45 on monday. Monday thrugh 7-17 options ex makes for about 10 days and .45/.55 is a 81% return if held through options ex.

I have been bearish on gold but decided to collect premium on this trade to counter other theta risk in my portfolio, in case the market was choppy or sideways.

Taking profits on longs, selling into Strength

observer — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:33:48 +0000

Bought long yesterday and sold into this mornings strength. Good traders take profits often.

This was a great example of the typical response to a large sell of as we had monday and doji day tuesday. SPX chart 200 ma on the 15 min is a good first target. wait and see mode now.

Gold, Euro, Dollar & Treasuries before Fed

observer — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 22:27:33 +0000

As Risk is sold off, Dollar and Tresuries Benefit. More to come, charts hint yes.

After a big Red Selling Day, watch MACD

observer — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 20:58:17 +0000

A trend is a trend until its not a trend. The “not a trend” part started with a flattening MACD signaling willing accumulators and short covering. market can rise to Moving averages and then rollover for a coninuation of the trend, but we won’t know until later.

ES_F Friday Options Ex Review: Excellent MACD trading signals

observer — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 05:56:42 +0000

Fridays options expiration was an excellent lesson in using trading signals using MACD.

Early morning Break out of from base lead to highs while MACD diverged lower. Resistence at 923-922 lead to a break of 918 neckline. 918 break lead to a target measured move from the peak to 913. MACD based toward afternoon and short covering bounce ended the day with some final volatility. Excellent movement for futures traders.

SPX price levels reviewed-post options expiration

observer — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 05:36:24 +0000

This a view of the market through the Hourly perspective.

Big picture, breaking the 880-875 level changes the trend from a UPTREND to sideways or downtrend by taking out the latest low and level of support. Alternatively, we have prices pushing on the 200 hour EMA, which also signal selling pressure. MACD also is below 0, but threatening to test the 0 level.

In my opinion, I believe the risk is to the downside and would prefer to buy at lower prices. If market goes sideways, the only winners would be spread traders and Nimble traders taking advantage of the intraday price action.

Stocks vs Bonds 1801-2009

observer — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 20:07:16 +0000

66% of SP500 stocks above 50 MA

observer — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 19:24:23 +0000

Looking to see how buying momentum changes for better or worse into next week with anticipation of the unemployment numbers for March and corporate earnings guidance.

I personally believe more than a conservative stop loss is due at this point after such a run. Time to take some size off as we have had a huge run, you can always chase, but you can’t always take profits.

Overbought says $NYMO

observer — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 19:13:18 +0000

Maybe another jump coming before consolidating

observer — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 03:33:51 +0000

Time to harvest profits? Apple calls up over 600%

observer — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 21:06:21 +0000

No i did not call the bottom on aaple and no i did not buy these calls for $.50.

I own these and was torn between letting them ride the trend or harvesting profits as the market has gone a long way and is likely to pull back as traders take profits. hoewever, I wonder now how many investors are now putting in their Mutual Fund and ETF orders on speculation that we are near a bottom, at least short term.

UPDATE on $usdjpy, trade worked, time for a repeat?

observer — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 21:03:41 +0000

Trade worked as $usdjpy fell within a new channel. Later it snapped back overnight and I did not catch that long trade. Now I am looking to go short again with stops, to repeat the trade.

Short USD/JPY working so far

observer — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 21:11:23 +0000

Enter around 98.00, lowering stops and looking for 97.00 break to 96.50 if i dont get stopped out first. stops above 97.50. May start taking profits if I see signs of accumulation vs BEAR flag action.

Watching USD/JPY for a pullback as “RISK is IN” vs “Safety Trade”

observer — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 03:11:42 +0000

Shorting USD/JPY with stops in the 99′s. Targets below 98 and 97.

Market up over 6% to SP 720, FAS up 38.15%

observer — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 02:08:14 +0000

Well, looks like the POSITIVE MACD Divergence Strikes again.

Watching futures and foreign markets to see a higher open or a pullback for tomorrows as investors wonder if this is the bottom or another bear mareket rally.

Video update on SPY technical research

observer — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 22:33:53 +0000

Only 29 stocks above 50 day moving average (in S&P500)

observer — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:49:47 +0000

Its only a matter of time until people get tired of selling. This chart shows that only 29 stocks in the sp500 are above their 50 day moving average.

Also, notice how the MACD histogram is rising from negative to positive showing a decline in negative momentum. just an observation until we see actual bullish price action. the trend is still lower.

Video Update today stock market action

observer — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:34:50 +0000

update on todays interesting action.

Chart Pattern Trader shows market is oversold, obviously.

observer — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 01:10:42 +0000

Source: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1926808&cmd=show[s143531594]&disp=O

Bulls in Bear Market, Technical Analysis Research.

observer — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:18:53 +0000

Elliot Wave Robert Prechter Says Gold Rally overdone

observer — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 00:08:56 +0000

Positive Divergence in NQ_F Nasdaq Futures MACD

observer — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 06:07:56 +0000

Might signal a change in direction.

6,322 stocks (vs 473) below 200 day SMA, SPX 700

observer — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 02:37:04 +0000

BULLS vs BEARS (IM a contrarian) video

observer — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 08:01:12 +0000

looking for contrarian plays, so many bears right now.

McClellan Oscillator Rises from oversold condition

observer — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 03:42:21 +0000

$NYMO chart has indicated with high probability short term bottoms short term tops. We are still in a bear market, I will be using stops as always. However, until stops are triggered, short term bottom play is an interesting risk reward trade. Using call options for even more risk contol.

Mid Day update Video, inverse head and shoulders in play

observer — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 17:55:28 +0000

PUT to CALL ratio sees follow through as Stocks bounce

observer — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 23:36:17 +0000

As we have been posting for past few days, the $CPC ratio shows more call buying ever since options expiration last friday signaling accumulation of risk takers speculating stocks would bounce off november lows.

Follow up on Call buying posted yesterday that lead to todays HUGE Up Day.

observer — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 22:21:43 +0000

Unusually HUGE Volume in BAC calls, WFC too

observer — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 00:22:11 +0000

Thats a lot of Volume in the March Calls. Could be a lot speculation in upside movement.

Here is FAS as well.

Put to Call ratio shows even more CALL BUYING

observer — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 23:34:40 +0000

Put to call ratio show a possible turn of direction in the works.

WHAT!! Dow to Gold Ratio is less than 1.0 ?!?! on the ETFs anyway

observer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 21:33:28 +0000

DOW TO GOLD RATIO is historical a barometer of valuation. Since 2000, the Gold prices lows and Dow highs have been grossly out of proportion. Only time will tell what happens next kids.

The ETFs show the SP500 is cheaper than one ounce of Gold at 1000. The Dow Jones is still about 7.3 times the price of Gold at 1000.

One for the files, FAZ calls into options Ex, RISKY

observer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 07:54:47 +0000

I could only stay til about 20, but wowwy, what a beauty, too bad im not a gambler. I moved to cash and the moved to March FAS Calls starting today to play a bounce.

Its ok, Test Proves My IQ is “Very Superior”

observer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 05:54:11 +0000

This obviously proves my research is also “Very Superior”

PS, My IQ is higher than Bill Clinton AND George Bush.

PUT to CALL ratio shows CALL buying

observer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 01:07:48 +0000

Interesting, all the fear today, and yet we saw many calls bought today apparently. I will wait to see follow though over the weekend to monday.

Check out Apple (aapl) ready to POP?

observer — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 01:02:05 +0000

Bought some March calls to play. Technicals look to repeat the earlier rise shown on the chart. TARGET 102, RISK=lows of today.

FAZ out of steam?

observer — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 22:21:45 +0000

XLF has been dripping lower ever since breaking through its lows. FAZ has benefited but is the party over for this 3x ETF? It ran out of steam today in possible double top. If banks get any positive news over the weekend, we may see short covering and buying in the banks, crushing FAZ, SKF, and SEF, pushing the market possibly higher.

I bought some FAS calls to speculate over the weekend, we shall see what happens.